Monday, June 30, 2025

Attack on Iran, some big beautiful details, favorite films of the 2000s, more.

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War with Iran, for some reason

Back in 2015, a coalition of countries that included the US entered an agreement with Iran--the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)--whereby Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program and intrusive inspections in exchange for sanctions relief. The JCPOA had its critics, but Iran appeared to be complying. 

In 2018, Trump had the US withdraw from the JCPOA and imposed new sanctions, seemingly because Trump didn’t like that the deal had been reached under Obama. With the US bailing, Iran resumed enriching uranium. Here’s a graph of Iran’s uranium stockpile over time, with events like entry into and US exit from the JCPOA noted:

Fast forward to June 13, 2025, when Israel launched a missile attack on Iran, citing a need to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. However, while it was stockpiling uranium, there is serious doubt about whether Iran was actually pursuing a weapons program: In March 2025, Trump’s Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told Congress that Iran was not pursuing a nuclear weapon, and reporting suggests nothing had changed since then. 

Trump was initially indecisive about how to proceed, but he appears to have been convinced to order the US to bomb Iran after seeing how well the Israeli attacks played on social media. Accordingly, on Saturday, June 21, 2025, Trump announced on his personal social media platform that US forces had bombed targets in Iran:

Conducting diplomacy via social media, Trump then tried to warn Iran off of retaliating:

He then floated regime change in Iran:

He demanded people keep oil prices down:

He insisted Iran’s nuclear program was destroyed notwithstanding reports to the contrary:

He thanked Iran for telegraphing its retaliatory missile attack on a US base in Qatar:

He then declared the matter over and tried to wish a cease fire into existence:

Needless to say, this is just an absolutely deranged and embarrassing way for a president to act. That it played out this way may or may not be related to the fact that there is “literally no one in the inner discussion of U.S. foreign policy today who has any level of foreign policy or military crisis experience at all.”

Not only does it appear that the US attack on Iran was an unnecessary and impulsive act undertaken for reasons of public relations and arising out of a mess of Trump’s own making, it doesn’t seem to have achieved much of anything good:

• While Trump claimed Iranian nuclear facilities were completely destroyed, that doesn’t appear to be the case, and there is evidence Iran moved equipment and uranium out of the targeted sites before the bombing. Reporting suggests that US bombing only set the Iranian nuclear program back a few months.
• The logical conclusion for Iran to draw seems to be that diplomacy is untrustworthy, and that the only way to ensure its security is to actually acquire nuclear weapons. The former top European Union Iran nuclear negotiator has suggested that this may be the result: “June 21, 2025 may go down in history not as the day the Iranian nuclear program was destroyed, but as the day a nuclear Iran was irreversibly born.”
• Every other nation without nuclear weapons may very well draw the same conclusion.
• And, with the situation still unsettled, the US attack on Iran may yet prove to be the first step in a much broader, longer war.

On top of that, the attack was unconstitutional usurpation of Congressional authority. As Senator Chris Murphy writes: “No president can take preemptive military action against another country without authorization of Congress, and what Trump has done in Iran is illegal.” In a sane world, it would result in a quick impeachment.

One bright spot: It’s still very early, and American military adventurism in the Middle East has a long track record of not wrapping up quickly and cleanly. However, I confess I’m surprised that the cease fire seems to have more or less held over the last week. Small blessings.

Lastly, Matt Yglesias and Senator Chris Murphy shared thoughts on the situation that I thought were worth a read.

The name is William, but you can call me Big Beautiful Bill

On Saturday, with only Republican support, the Senate voted 51-49 to advance Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” past a procedural hurdle. There are differences between the House and Senate versions, and changes are still being made. However, here is some of what’s expected to be in it:

• $3.8 trillion in tax cuts. Overall, the bill is expected to increase the income of wealthier households by about $12,000, while the package would cost the poorest Americans $1,600.
• A huge funding increase for ICE and Trump’s deportation agenda, including money for 10,000 new ICE agents, as well as $45 billion for concentration camps. It’s hard to overstate how much we should expect this to supercharge immigration enforcement.
• Medicaid cuts that are predicted to result in about 11 million more people without health insurance. This may prove disastrous for rural hospitals, causing closures and reduced services.
• Cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program that will cause 3 million more people to be ineligible for food stamps.
• Cuts to green energy incentive programs. 
• An additional $2.4 trillion to $3.3 trillion added to the national debt.

There's been too much else going on for it to garner much attention, but this bill will be extremely consequential if and when it passes.

SCOTUS Placeholder

There's a lot of big news out of the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS), but I haven't had time to write it up yet. In the meantime, if you're looking for resources to try to make sense of recent developments, I recommend reading Chris Geidner, Steve Vladeck, and Mark Joseph Stern and listening to the 5-4 and Strict Scrutiny podcasts.

Miscellanea

Mahmoud Khalil has been freed.

Trump regime moves to reconsider a ban on asbestos.

A.I. chatbots appear to be guiding some susceptible people to break with reality.

The NYTimes is doing a "best movies of the 21st century" thing. Please don't judge me too harshly--I spent about 3 minutes on it--but here's my ballot: